By Alfaritsy Through comprehending how President Trump’s impact is molding occurrences throughout Western, Asian, Middle Eastern (Arab), and African territories, we can gain deeper insights into what I term “the Trump Effect,” drawing parallels with the concept of the Big Bang. This understanding may promote a fairer viewpoint and facilitate negotiations instead of engaging in an escalating trade war.
An undeniable truth is that Trump is rewriting the guidelines for global trade, achieving this by curbing globalization—an occurrence that commenced from the latter part of the 18th century through the early 19th century. Historically speaking, events like the Silk Road and the Industrial Revolution—the latter beginning in Great Britain after the development of the steam engine and mechanized looms—initiated worldwide commerce by facilitating large-scale manufacturing aimed at markets far exceeding local needs.
During the contemporary period, global commerce experienced considerable growth following the creation of the World Economic Forum (WEF) in 1971 in Davos, Switzerland. From that point onward, international trade has followed principles outlined in the Davos Manifesto, promoting moral business practices, accountable leadership, and the impartial ideals of Swiss diplomatic ethos—the foundation of globalization’s essence. An official charter articulating this perspective was established in 1973 and later updated in 2020.
History demonstrates that global trade prospers under protection but stumbles without it. For example, during the first century BCE, commerce in silk and spices between China and Rome prospered due to the safeguarding provided by mighty empires. However, as these empires weakened, the once-thriving trade routes and their economic success waned accordingly.
Currently, as President Trump—the head of the present world superpower—adopts a protectionist position, this aligns with his previous actions. Throughout his career, he has frequently employed tariffs as a means of exerting economic influence. As far back as 1988, during an appearance on Oprah Winfrey’s show, Trump, who was at that time a prominent real estate developer, lambasted China for allegedly taking advantage of the U.S. economy.
Trump is not the only one who holds this view. An old video surfaced from 1996 showing Nancy Pelosi, at that time a Congresswoman representing California, speaking out against granting China special trade privileges. She was opposed to exempting Chinese goods from tariffs—a stance that aligns with what Trump supports today.
In summary, the use of tariffs as a strategic tool in global trade has bipartisan roots in the US. What has changed is the scale and audacity of the Trump administration’s approach, which has sent shockwaves across the global economic landscape—earning it the moniker of a Big Bang moment in trade history.
Therefore, Trump is essentially mirroring Pelosi’s views by introducing substantial tariffs at this time. The key distinction lies in the scope of these increased duties, which now encompass approximately 180 countries instead of being confined to just China, impacting around 60 nations considerably.
Interestingly enough, recent reports indicate that back in 2019, Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders proposed using tariffs as a means to combat unfair trading tactics. This idea is now being used as the foundation for President Trump’s current global tariff conflict, putting the international community on high alert.
Experts familiar with the history and current application of tariffs reveal that about $400 billion worth of U.S. products were tariffed during Trump’s first term. In his current second term, projections suggest that up to $1 trillion worth of goods may fall under U.S. trade tariffs.
Based on economist projections, around $3.3 billion worth of goods are imported into the United States each year.
President Trump believes that his policy of imposing higher tariffs will lead to greater prosperity for the United States by fostering domestic manufacturing, thereby enhancing job opportunities for American workers from blue-collar backgrounds. A major aim is also to ensure equitable trade practices between the U.S. and its international trading partners, who Trump claims have been gaining unfair advantages at the cost of the American economy.
In the end, President Trump intends to utilize the revenue generated from these elevated tariffs to address the $36 trillion budget shortfall confronting the globe’s biggest and strongest economic power.
In light of this, Mr. Peter Navarro, Trump’s trade adviser, believes that high tariffs have the potential to generate over $6 trillion for the U.S. in the short term.
In all of this, my main concern and interest is in how Africa can benefit from the reimagining of the global socioeconomic ecosystem, as President Trump upends the old world order.
With a 14% tariff now imposed by the U.S. on Nigerian goods and 10% across most of the 54 nations continent, Nigeria’s exports to the U.S.—valued at between $5 and $6 billion (with oil and gas making up over 90% and non-oil/gas exports accounting for less than 10%)—are under threat.
Among the non-oil/gas exports, the majority consists of raw materials like urea/fertilizers, ammonia, floral products, and cashews, accounting for approximately 8%.
It is disheartening that value-added or processed exports from Nigeria to the U.S. amount to just 2%, which is remarkably low.
Even though this number is small, the introduction of a 14% duty on Nigerian products—even with the trade balance being advantageous to the U.S.—ought to act as an alert for Nigeria and Africa at large to start enhancing the value of their exported items. For non-oil exports, which face a 10% tariff, to remain competitive in the American market, they will have to advance along the value chain.
Nigeria’s export prominence continues to be shaped by its role as a primary provider of raw materials to major industrial powers like those in Europe, North America, and Asia. Of all six continents, only South America and the Arab states haven’t maximized their use of Africa both as a key resource base and a market for manufactured goods. Consequently, Africa has often been cast in the unfavorable position akin to an overlooked child holding onto something incorrectly, which needs to shift through deliberate strategies aimed at reversing this detrimental storyline.
When I think about the Trump tariffs, they bring to mind deglobalization as international trade and investments among nations diminish. However, this global tariff conflict presents an opportunity for Africa to redefine itself globally through unified action. This could involve establishing fair trading practices within the continent—deciding whom to engage with in the Global South, West, or East according to our own conditions rather than adhering to frameworks like those imposed during the partition of Africa in Berlin without African representation. Those agreements allowed European powers, once merely slavers turned colonizers, to exploit the continent’s wealth after divvying up its territories amongst themselves.
• Magnus Onyibe, who is an entrepreneur, public policy analyst, author, advocate for democracy, and development strategist, as well as an alum of the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University in Massachusetts, USA, and previously served as a commissioner in the Delta State government, submitted this article from Lagos, Nigeria.
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